?Would you like to invest in Iran? Iran is a country in Western Asia. Comprising a land area of 1,648,195 km۲ (۶۳۶,۳۷۲ sq mi), it is the second largest country in the Middle East and the 17th largest in the world. With an attractive business environment for investment, and having considerable potentials and advantages such as strategic geopolitical situation, climate diversity, economic advantages, energy security and domestic and regional markets, Iran is one of the best choices for your investment.
the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
IRAN: THE $1 TRILLION GROWTH OPPORTUNITY?
A new era has begun for Iran’s economy. Isolated from the West, and operating in relative autarky, it has an opportunity to reconnect with the global economy following the January 2016 easing of international sanctions. Expectations of rapid growth are running high within the Iranian government, among ordinary Iranians, and in the domestic and international business community. In this report we gauge
Iran’s growth opportunity to 2035 through a sector-by-sector examination of the economy’s potential and challenges.
As Iran emerges from the sanctions era, it has six core strengths on which to build future growth. Its diversified economy, strong tradition of scientific education, and fast-growing consumer class, along with a high degree of urbanisation, a deeply rooted culture of entrepreneurship, and the country’s geographic location between East and West, could all contribute to Iran’s reconnection with the global economy and its future prosperity.
Iran’s very substantial oil and gas reserves will be essential drivers of economic growth, but the country also has many other sectors with the potential to contribute to GDP growth and employment.
They include other resource-based industries such as petrochemicals and mining; sectors including automotive, fast-moving consumer goods, and tourism that could become internationally competitive; information and communications technology, banking, insurance, and professional services that will be essential if Iran is to become a knowledge-based economy; and infrastructurerelated industries such as transport, utilities, and construction that would enable growth.
Our “micro-to-macro” approach, building a comprehensive picture from sector-by-sector analysis, finds that Iran has the potential to grow GDP by $1 trillion and create nine million jobs by 2035. This implies an economic growth rate of 6.3 percent per year in projected real exchange rates gradually increasing over the next two decades. Such growth would require investment of about $3.5 trillion
and would increase global GDP by more than 1 percent.
To realise this opportunity, Iran will need to improve productivity and upgrade its industrial infrastructure with an economy better able to attract and absorb domestic and foreign investment, new technology, and modern management practices, a financial system that efficiently channels savings to productive investment and is well connected to international systems, a labour market with greater flexibility and workplace skills and higher labour participation, and a business environment
that encourages more dynamic competition and innovation. Transparency, the rule of law, corporate governance, and pace of reforms will also need to be improved.
Alongside Iranian firms, international companies could have a significant role to play in building a stronger and more globally competitive Iranian economy. Foreign direct investment dried up during sanctions but is already starting to flow again. Since the implementation in January 2016 of the international nuclear agreement with Iran, many representatives of foreign companies have travelled to Iran to begin talks and, in some cases, sign commercial agreements.
Realising Iran’s potential for growth and its full reconnection to the global economy will take time and considerable effort. Not all international sanctions have been lifted, and Iran’s government, whilst expressing its intent to introduce widespread reforms, will need to accelerate its reform agenda.
Stability at home and in its international relations will be essential if Iran is to meet the high aspirations of its people for a flourishing economy in the two decades to come.
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